The three hottest operators face ARPU challenges

  • Detail

The three major operators are facing ARPU challenges

at noon yesterday, Chinatelecom announced its main financial and operational data for the first quarter of 2014. The announcement shows that the operating income of Chinatelecom in the first quarter was 83.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%; The sales revenue of mobile terminals was 9.038 billion yuan of shore hardness, sometimes called international rubber hardness, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, and the operating revenue excluding the sales of mobile terminals was 74.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%

so far, the three major operators have presented their first quarter report cards. From the perspective of net profit, both Chinatelecom and China Unicom increased to varying degrees in the first quarter. The net profit was 5.547 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan, up 17.9% and 73.9% year-on-year. The net profit of China Mobile was 25.2 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year. At the same time, the ARPU value (average revenue per user contribution) of the three major operators in the first quarter showed a downward trend, indicating that Ott and other services have an obvious substitution effect on voice and SMS

basic operators are changing their original business models. When the traditional voice and SMS services are gradually replaced, the basic operators must make a breakthrough in traffic management to generate more added value. Fu Liang, an independent Telecom analyst, told China business news

in addition, from the performance in the first quarter, China Mobile is actively deploying 4G, but has not had a direct impact on the performance, while Chinatelecom is in the most difficult period due to licensing and other issues. This year and the first half of next year will be the time window for China Unicom when both rivals are not ready

joy and worry behind the 4G window

the data of China Mobile betting on 4G has attracted particular attention in the industry

the financial report shows that in the first quarter of this year, China Mobile had a net increase of 13.88 million customers, with an average monthly net increase of more than 4.6 million users. This data is basically the same as the average monthly customer growth in 2013, but it is significantly lower than the monthly customer growth of 5.34 million in the first quarter of last year. As of March 31 this year, the total number of mobile users in China had reached 781million, including 225million 3G users and 2.79 million 4G users

at the 2013 performance conference in March this year, China Mobile said that it would sell 100million 4G units and develop 50million 4G users this year. At present, the number of 4G users is less than 3million, which is far from the target of 50million. In the last three quarters, China Mobile has great pressure on the development of 4G customers

Fu Liang said that in terms of 4G investment, from terminal subsidies to promotion, mobile has done a lot of positive things, but it has also lowered the relevant gross profit margin to a certain extent. And from the perspective of current terminal manufacturers, although there are plans for 4G terminals, the real volume still needs to be in the second half of the year or even next year

according to the financial report data of Chinatelecom, although the net profit increased, it is worth noting that this part came from the adjustment of the inter mobile Internet settlement standard: thanks to the savings in some settlement expenses since January 1, 2014, Chinatelecom reduced other operating expenses in the first quarter by 5.4% year-on-year

in addition, since no operator in the world has successfully realized the seamless connection between CDMA and TD-LTE, Chinatelecom will spend a huge amount of money and time to promote the development of 4G. Therefore, Chinatelecom has to wait for the release of fdd-lte license. Before that, it can only use 3G network to deal with the 4G competition of China Mobile. However, due to the speed limit of CDMA, Chinatelecom can not compete with China Mobile 4G network by directly upgrading the speed of the original 3G as China Unicom launched 42mbps, which puts Chinatelecom at a disadvantage in this competition. According to data, Chinatelecom saw a net decrease of 2.38 million mobile users in the first quarter, accumulating to 183million

in this case, this year and the first half of next year are the time windows for Unicom. Fuliang told that 3G construction took almost two years, while 4G investment was relatively firm, and the time was reduced to one and a half years. In this way, there is still an advantage of one and a half years until next year. Fuliang said to him

according to the financial report of China Unicom, in the first quarter of 2014, China Unicom achieved an operating revenue of 76.47 billion yuan, including a service revenue of 63.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; The pre tax profit was 4.39 billion yuan and the net profit was 3.30 billion yuan, an increase of 73.9% year-on-year

Goldman Sachs Gaohua securities released a report that there are several main reasons for Unicom's performance improvement in this round. On the one hand, it is the reduction of connectivity costs, on the other hand, it is the control of sales and marketing costs. Goldman Sachs estimates that half of the net profit growth of China Unicom in the first quarter will come from the reduction of interconnection fees, and the other half will come from the growth of 3G business

however, some insiders believe that the success of intelligent terminals and the advantages of 3G network have given China Unicom the opportunity to overtake in the curve. However, it still needs to continue to accelerate after overtaking, otherwise it will be overtaken by the opponent in the straight race

in the remaining time window, Unicom needs to be faithful to the industrial law, make the service to the extreme, open up innovation, and better cooperate with all parties in the industrial chain, so as to truly realize the scale effect. Fuliang said

facing ARPU challenges

it is worth noting that while actively developing users, the ARPU value (average revenue contribution per user) of the three operators in the first quarter continued to decline, indicating that the substitution of voice and SMS services by Ott services has played a direct threat to the development of the three operators

the financial report shows that the ARPU of China Mobile in the first quarter when the pendulum swings back decreased by 8.82% month on month. In this regard, China Mobile said that due to the increase of low usage users, the popularity of one person with multiple cards, and the steady adjustment of tariffs, In the first quarter, the ARPU value was 62 yuan "to improve the utilization level of new materials. In addition, due to the impact of Ott products, China Mobile's total call minutes and average monthly call minutes per user (MOU) And SMS usage showed a downward trend month on month

it is understood that this round of decline is the largest decline of China Mobile in recent years. In the past few years, despite the competition from China Unicom and Chinatelecom 3G, the ARPU of China Mobile has decreased slowly, which shows that China Mobile still has the most high-end users, and the market structure remains unchanged as a whole. However, since last year, the ARPU decline of China Mobile has accelerated. Obviously, the reason is not from the competition among operators

the ARPU of China Unicom decreased even more. Although the service revenue of mobile broadband services (including 3G and 4G services) was 26.91 billion yuan, its proportion in the service revenue of mobile services increased from 54.6% in the same period of last year to 66.2%, but the ARPU of mobile services was 70.3 yuan. Last year, the ARPU of Unicom 3G users was 78.2 yuan

Chinatelecom said that ARPU in the first quarter was slightly higher than that in the whole year last year, but due to the impact of new Internet technologies and intensified mobile substitution, the number of fixed local users of Chinatelecom decreased by 2.97 million in the first quarter. However, the number of fixed broadband users reached 102million, a net increase of 2.23 million

according to the statistics of the Ministry of information industry, the growth rate of mobile voice minutes slowed down to 2.2% from January to February 2014, compared with 5.0% and 12.4% in 2013 and 2012. Compared with the same period last year, the short message service decreased by 19.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate of short message service volume in 2013 and January February 2012 was -0.6% and 2.1% respectively

for operators, SMS business has begun to enter a stagflation state, and mobile Internet Ott business has sprung up, prompting operators to explore more win-win models with mobile Internet companies. Fuliang said that from the perspective of broadband, the main task of operators last year was to tap the value of existing networks, and what needs to be solved from this year to next year is how to make the existing networks play a greater role, such as running more applications

Fu Liang said that the increase in traffic will reduce the charges of operators through exhibition, but will bring more benefits to operators as a whole

for businesses such as virtual operators, Fu Liang believes that virtual operators are still in the stage of grabbing eyeballs. Users will be grabbing in the second half of the year, and revenue will be grabbing next year. Therefore, from the perspective of benefits, it will not have a direct impact on the competition pattern of operators in the short term. Fuliang said to him

major financial data of the three operators in the first quarter

year-on-year increase and decrease in revenue and net profit

China Mobile 154.8 billion yuan 7.8% 25.2 billion yuan -9.4%

China Unicom 76.47 billion yuan 11.8% 3.3 billion yuan 73.9%

Chinatelecom 83.18 billion yuan 6.9% 5.5 billion yuan 17.9%

source: announcement of listed companies

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI