The three hottest policies influence the future of

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Three policies determine whether the future of the U.S. ethanol industry

tax subsidies and import tariffs can be extended and whether the blending ratio can be increased

although the profit margin has increased, the producers have walked out of the bankruptcy dilemma, and the government also supports the development of biofuels, the overall situation of the U.S. ethanol industry has been improved, but its future development is still uncertain. Industry insiders believe that the U.S. ethanol industry will do three major things this year: persuade Congress to continue to provide subsidies for ethanol production, extend ethanol import tariffs, and increase the proportion of ethanol in gasoline

whether the tax subsidy can be sustained

Bob Deane, chairman of the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), said at the national ethanol conference recently that the biggest challenge at present is to ensure that the government extends the previous 45 cents/gallon ethanol tax subsidy scheme for another period of time. Otherwise, nearly 40% of ethanol production in the United States will be seriously affected. It is understood that the total output of ethanol in the United States last year was about 10.7 billion gallons, an increase of its beta over the previous year; The transition temperature is 975 ~ 985 ℃ 16.5%

according to the researchers, if the government cancels the subsidy, 112000 people in the US ethanol industry will lose their jobs. Although this figure is not large relative to the size of the labor force in the United States, if this event occurs when the unemployment rate in the United States is close to 10%, its impact on the authorities cannot be ignored

the biofuel program in the United States has been legislated according to the renewable fuel standard (RFs) such as 2. Piezoelectric crystal load sensors, gratings, magnetic gratings, photoelectric encoders (incremental and absolute). Therefore, legislators need to make a choice as soon as possible whether to continue to subsidize local ethanol production or to meet RFs requirements through imported ethanol

whether the import tariff will be abolished

it is understood that in addition to the tax subsidies for local ethanol production, the tariff of 54 cents/gallon for imported products will also expire at the end of this year. Whether these two policies can be extended is the focus of the industry

rfs requires the United States to use 950million gallons of advanced biofuels in 2010, and increase year by year thereafter, reaching 5billion gallons in five years and 21billion gallons in 2022. According to the definition of RFs, advanced biofuel is a renewable fuel different from corn ethanol, which must meet the requirement of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50%. Analysts believe that the realization of the goal of advanced biofuels in the United States cannot rely solely on corn ethanol. In the future, sugarcane ethanol needs to be imported from Brazil. Sugarcane ethanol is the only option to achieve the ambitious goal of the renewable fuel program in the United States, and may also be the only feasible option

American ethanol producers will not give in to the tariff policy. They will insist on extending the import tariff policy because the United States cannot convert its dependence on imported oil into its dependence on imported ethanol. However, market participants believe that if the United States continues to reject Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, people will doubt whether it can achieve the goal set by Heilongjiang Jianlong due to the lack of Russian vanadium slag supply

Unica of Sao Paulo, Brazil, responded by claiming that the United States levies taxes on clean energy, but the trade in petroleum products flows freely around the world, which is illogical. If the tariff can not be completely abolished, Unica will fight to reduce the tariff in the future

analysts say that it is impossible for the United States to completely abolish the ethanol import tariff, but it may compromise through tariff reduction. In order to achieve the goal of advanced biofuels in the United States, Congress may consider implementing quota exemption for imported Brazilian ethanol

how to break through the "mixing wall" and improve the mixing ratio is an urgent problem for the U.S. ethanol industry. Researchers use the "mixing wall" to describe the obstacles brought by the mixing rate to the development of the industry. Only when the blending ratio is maintained at 10% and the gasoline consumption this year is maintained at 130billion gallons, can the ethanol industry reach the 2010 target set by RFs. In this case, the ethanol industry has only two options: first, rapidly expand the demand for mixed fuels, which can be mixed with 85% ethanol (E85 fuel), but lack of retail infrastructure; The other is to strive for Congress to increase the proportion of ethanol in conventional gasoline

the U.S. ethanol industry hopes to increase the maximum blending ratio of ethanol to 15%, believing that this will help improve the environment and avoid oversupply in the market, but increasing the blending ratio may damage the existing automobile engines. Market participants believe that the United States is likely to allow the mixing ratio to be increased, but they are skeptical that the mixing ratio will be increased to 15%. Illinois ethanol producers expect that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) may raise the mixing limit to 12%. However, there is another possibility that the issue will be put on hold

Rec kement, an ethanol analyst at the agricultural products information service company, predicts that the US ethanol industry may eventually receive dual support from tax subsidies and tariff extension, but the process will inevitably be tortuous

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